Code Stylometry Analysis — April 2026

What Bitcoin's source code
reveals about
its author.

The April 2026 New York Times investigation identified Adam Back as Satoshi Nakamoto through writing patterns, mailing list analysis, and behavioral signals. This site examines the same question through Bitcoin's source code. Back scores 1 out of 12 on code stylometry traits. A Windows MFC P2P developer scores 11 out of 12. The two bodies of evidence point to different candidate profiles.

The two cases
NYT / Carreyrou — Apr 8, 2026
The Prose & Behavior Case
18 months · John Carreyrou · Dylan Freedman
Conclusion
Adam Back
British cryptographer — CEO, Blockstream — Age 55
  • Blueprint posts (1997–1999): Back described nearly every Bitcoin design element a decade before launch — proof-of-work minting, Byzantine fault tolerance, distributed timestamps, inflation control, energy defense
  • Writing funnel: 34,000 mailing list users filtered through 7 linguistic traits — two spaces, British spelling, its/it's confusion, hyphenation errors — reduced to 1 person: Back
  • Behavioral signals: Went silent on e-cash discussions during Satoshi's entire active period; joined Bitcointalk the day Satoshi's fortune was revealed; Satoshi "reappeared" in the 2015 block size war using Back's exact vocabulary
  • Stylometry (Cafiero): Back closest match to the white paper — but result called "inconclusive" by the expert himself
Our full evaluation →
whowrotebitcoin.com — Apr 2026
The Code Stylometry Case
12 traits · Bitcoin v0.1 vs open-source candidates
Closest code match
Michael Stokes
Shareaza author — Windows MFC C++ P2P developer
  • Adam Back scores 1/12: Writes C not C++, uses snake_case not CamelCase, block comments not line comments, no Hungarian notation, no C-prefix classes, tabs not spaces — almost nothing matches Bitcoin's codebase
  • Bitcoin's code is Windows MFC: C-prefix classes (CBlock, CTransaction), Hungarian notation (nValue, hashPrev), Allman bracing, precompiled headers, wxWidgets/Win32 platform — the fingerprint of a Windows GUI developer
  • Zero cypherpunks match: Systematic search of 30+ Cypherpunks mailing list participants found none whose code resembles Bitcoin's style
  • Best unexplored lead: Kevin Hearn (WinMX/Tixati) — Canadian Windows C++ solo developer, "disappeared" 2005–2009, cryptographic background, accepts Bitcoin — but code is closed source
Full code analysis →

The gap that matters

The NYT's best evidence — a writing filter reducing 34,000 mailing list users to one person — points to Back. Our best evidence — Bitcoin's codebase shares almost nothing with Back's known code — points away from him. Both use auditable data. Both have real methodological gaps.

Carreyrou's investigation never looked at the source code. We never modeled the 1997–1999 blueprint posts, which are the most compelling evidence for Back in the entire investigation. Neither analysis is complete on its own.

The most defensible reconciliation: Back wrote explicitly in 1998 about building tools to defeat stylometric analysis. Someone that deliberate about hiding his writing fingerprint could plausibly hide his coding fingerprint too. But that argument works for any counter-evidence, which should make you suspicious of it.

Probability estimates: Is Back Satoshi?
Ringger Bayesian model (Substack)
99.99%
DAG model, 10 evidence categories, Monte Carlo sensitivity. Built entirely from Carreyrou's investigation. No code counter-evidence. Expert stylometrist called his own result "inconclusive" — Ringger treated it as positive.
Our estimate (prose + code combined)
~75%
The blueprint posts and writing funnel are genuinely strong. Code stylometry is a real counter-signal absent from this model. The extended Bayesian model incorporating code evidence is documented on the Bayesian Model page.
Code-only estimate
~5%
On code alone, Back is the weakest match of any candidate examined. Bitcoin's MFC fingerprint doesn't appear anywhere in his known work.
Code stylometry scorecard — Bitcoin v0.1 (12 traits)
#
Candidate
Known code / context
Score
1
M. Stokes ★
Shareaza — Windows MFC C++ P2P, C prefix, Hungarian, Allman braces
11/12
2
V. Falco
BearShare — Windows MFC C++, P2P, two-space indent
9/12
3
Wei Dai
Crypto++ — C++, no C prefix, Windows-compatible
8.5/12
4
G. Andresen
Bitcoin-qt early — C++ but Unix-oriented, 4-space
8.5/12
5
Len Sassaman
Mixmaster — C++, 2-space, some overlap
4.5/12
6
J. McCaleb
eDonkey2000 — C++, tabs, mixed style
4.5/12
7
Hal Finney
RPOW — C, /* block comments */, Unix
2/12
8
Adam Back
Hashcash — C, snake_case, block comments, tabs, Unix
1/12
9
Jack Dorsey
Objective-C / Ruby — entirely different paradigm
1/12
Notable absence: Kevin Hearn (WinMX / Tixati) — our most intriguing unexplored lead — is not ranked because all his code is closed-source. His profile matches Satoshi's behavioral and technical archetype closely. See the deep dive.